drought
The Map to Hell
02/18/2011 07:25
Here is some bad news for those that hate a long, hot, dry summer:
If this persists through the spring, then summer is going to be very unpleasant in Atlanta. No soil moisture ups the chances for extended periods of upper 90’s to over 100 with little to no relief from summer storms. The only fix becomes hoping that a tropical system brings rain. I’m afraid we are in from a brutal summer in the SE.... and I’m none to happy about that!
If this persists through the spring, then summer is going to be very unpleasant in Atlanta. No soil moisture ups the chances for extended periods of upper 90’s to over 100 with little to no relief from summer storms. The only fix becomes hoping that a tropical system brings rain. I’m afraid we are in from a brutal summer in the SE.... and I’m none to happy about that!
Happy New Year!
01/02/2011 15:45
The cold will continue to be the story into the new year. Many (myself included) thought we might see a break from the cold of December, but it looks as though we will continue to see below normal temperatures through the middle of the month.
We will have lots of cold, but not too much in the way of moisture. No major snow/ice threats on the horizon. However, we really could use some rain. It’s hard to think about while it is so cold, but much of the south-eastern US is currently in a moderate to severe drought.
We certainly do NOT want to see the map looking like that come summertime!
We will have lots of cold, but not too much in the way of moisture. No major snow/ice threats on the horizon. However, we really could use some rain. It’s hard to think about while it is so cold, but much of the south-eastern US is currently in a moderate to severe drought.
We certainly do NOT want to see the map looking like that come summertime!
Beautiful Fall Weather... At a Cost...
10/07/2010 09:27
Lovely weather in Atlanta of late. I LOVE October!
But...
These are not pretty pictures...
We seriously need some rain, but don’t count on it anytime soon. Maybe a shower next Monday evening?
Enjoy the nice weather now! We might wind up having to pay it back next summer (but let’s not ruin the day with those thoughts)....
But...
These are not pretty pictures...
We seriously need some rain, but don’t count on it anytime soon. Maybe a shower next Monday evening?
Enjoy the nice weather now! We might wind up having to pay it back next summer (but let’s not ruin the day with those thoughts)....
3D Weather
09/21/2010 13:26
DROUGHT, DREAD, AND DESPAIR
Summer 2010 started off with a fairly rainy June... However July, August, and now September have offered a lot of unwelcome heat and very little rain.
Ufortunately, we are now “officially” in a drought, and one that may last for some time to come.
I HATE SUMMER
Save for those days/evenings when you can watch the clouds grow and lightning flashing from scattered storms, I absolutely HATE summer... of course there hasn’t been many of those storms since June... it has been warmer than usual.... and I’m none too pleased about it being late September with highs in the 90’s and lows in the upper 60’s. Ugh! Summer - Leave already!!!
Winter is almost my favorite season (I love SNOW and other wintery fun), but I don’t like the “cold part” of it. Once it goes below 29, I’m generally “not having it”. Spring is great for all the severe weather excitement, but the beauty of trees budding and flowers starting to bloom is quickly overpowered by the inevitable arrival of my aforementioned most hated time of year.
Thankfully, the death of summer is inevitable, and my favorite time of the year is almost here. September 1st is generally acknowledged to be the start of “meteorological fall” (with the astronomical start/equinox being around the 21st/22nd). However, September in Atlanta is usually a “bonus summer month” (why do I still live in Atlanta?), with this particular September clearly showing it wants nothing to do with fall. But October (my favorite month) is just 10 days away... and with it comes some of the most pleasant weather of the year for Atlanta. I should be excited, right! Well, of course I am... but a little less so this year...
October usually brings cooler temps and wind patterns that finally clear out all that summer pollution/haze, and it is historically the driest month of the year for Atlanta/the southeast (makes for pleasant weather! ). However, October 2010 looks to be warmer than average with below average rainfall. Summer may continue to stay well past its welcome even into October. Warmer than I’d like it, but I’m sure it will still be pleasant for the most part. Of course the wild card is a tropical system. And while I hate to take away any of those beautiful October days, we really need it to happen. More on that in a few...
LA NINA IS EVIL
Southeastern US winters with a strong La Nina generally have warmer than average temps and below average rainfall.
The “good news” is that we shouldn’t have the never-ending cold like this past winter. The “bad news” (at least those that love wintery mischief) is there will be less chance for SNOW.
Of course ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) is just one piece in the chaos of “patterns”. There are also long duration patterns like the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation), but these play out of many years and are very hot topics in the “Global Climate Change” debate. For those (like me) that want wintery mischief, we do have some muted hope with Teleconnections that vary over smaller periods of time. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) have a large impact during the winter for Atlanta/SE. If you want wintery weather during this La Nina, you generally want to see both the AO and NAO in negative territory. (Maybe I’ll try to post something before winter begins that shows this a little more graphically)
Now that I’m done complaining about the grim outlook for wintery precip chances, here is the really is “bad news”. With most of the coming fall & winter expected to be warm, dry, and mostly boring. The drought looks to continue through the winter months and maybe even into the spring. There is also a chance of more severe weather than usual during the winter into the spring. Obviously any rainfall will be good rainfall, but these events aren’t likely to make much of a dent in the drought.
ALREADY DREADING SUMMER 2011?
Droughts and heat waves go “hand in hand”. If the drought worsens and continues on through the spring, there will be less soil moisture to evaporate. This means more of the sun’s energy will be spent heating the barren ground and every object that doesn’t melt, making Atlanta even more like hell. Since the weather is pretty static here during the summer, those afternoon summer storms are mostly driven by moisture in the area. With no soil moisture and no weather systems to bring moisture from elsewhere, there will be little in the way of relief from the heat by scattered storms. Does this sound familiar? It should... only 3 years ago...
Drought : 2007
SUMMER FROM HELL: AUGUST 01-27, 2007
Fortunately, there is nothing now that indicates that the current drought will be anywhere near as bad as 2007.
WE NEED A TROPICAL SYSTEM OR TWO
Obviously the weather can surprise us in unexpected ways, but with the current pattern in place, we are likely stuck with the drought for some time. Our best hope to lessen the impact of the drought is a tropical system. October is already not going to be that perfect month with the warmer temps, so might as well have it be a rainy October too. So I hope we can get one or two weak systems that bring some solid rain (but without flooding).
Summer 2010 started off with a fairly rainy June... However July, August, and now September have offered a lot of unwelcome heat and very little rain.
Ufortunately, we are now “officially” in a drought, and one that may last for some time to come.
I HATE SUMMER
Save for those days/evenings when you can watch the clouds grow and lightning flashing from scattered storms, I absolutely HATE summer... of course there hasn’t been many of those storms since June... it has been warmer than usual.... and I’m none too pleased about it being late September with highs in the 90’s and lows in the upper 60’s. Ugh! Summer - Leave already!!!
Winter is almost my favorite season (I love SNOW and other wintery fun), but I don’t like the “cold part” of it. Once it goes below 29, I’m generally “not having it”. Spring is great for all the severe weather excitement, but the beauty of trees budding and flowers starting to bloom is quickly overpowered by the inevitable arrival of my aforementioned most hated time of year.
Thankfully, the death of summer is inevitable, and my favorite time of the year is almost here. September 1st is generally acknowledged to be the start of “meteorological fall” (with the astronomical start/equinox being around the 21st/22nd). However, September in Atlanta is usually a “bonus summer month” (why do I still live in Atlanta?), with this particular September clearly showing it wants nothing to do with fall. But October (my favorite month) is just 10 days away... and with it comes some of the most pleasant weather of the year for Atlanta. I should be excited, right! Well, of course I am... but a little less so this year...
October usually brings cooler temps and wind patterns that finally clear out all that summer pollution/haze, and it is historically the driest month of the year for Atlanta/the southeast (makes for pleasant weather! ). However, October 2010 looks to be warmer than average with below average rainfall. Summer may continue to stay well past its welcome even into October. Warmer than I’d like it, but I’m sure it will still be pleasant for the most part. Of course the wild card is a tropical system. And while I hate to take away any of those beautiful October days, we really need it to happen. More on that in a few...
LA NINA IS EVIL
Southeastern US winters with a strong La Nina generally have warmer than average temps and below average rainfall.
The “good news” is that we shouldn’t have the never-ending cold like this past winter. The “bad news” (at least those that love wintery mischief) is there will be less chance for SNOW.
Of course ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) is just one piece in the chaos of “patterns”. There are also long duration patterns like the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation), but these play out of many years and are very hot topics in the “Global Climate Change” debate. For those (like me) that want wintery mischief, we do have some muted hope with Teleconnections that vary over smaller periods of time. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) have a large impact during the winter for Atlanta/SE. If you want wintery weather during this La Nina, you generally want to see both the AO and NAO in negative territory. (Maybe I’ll try to post something before winter begins that shows this a little more graphically)
Now that I’m done complaining about the grim outlook for wintery precip chances, here is the really is “bad news”. With most of the coming fall & winter expected to be warm, dry, and mostly boring. The drought looks to continue through the winter months and maybe even into the spring. There is also a chance of more severe weather than usual during the winter into the spring. Obviously any rainfall will be good rainfall, but these events aren’t likely to make much of a dent in the drought.
ALREADY DREADING SUMMER 2011?
Droughts and heat waves go “hand in hand”. If the drought worsens and continues on through the spring, there will be less soil moisture to evaporate. This means more of the sun’s energy will be spent heating the barren ground and every object that doesn’t melt, making Atlanta even more like hell. Since the weather is pretty static here during the summer, those afternoon summer storms are mostly driven by moisture in the area. With no soil moisture and no weather systems to bring moisture from elsewhere, there will be little in the way of relief from the heat by scattered storms. Does this sound familiar? It should... only 3 years ago...
Drought : 2007
SUMMER FROM HELL: AUGUST 01-27, 2007
Fortunately, there is nothing now that indicates that the current drought will be anywhere near as bad as 2007.
WE NEED A TROPICAL SYSTEM OR TWO
Obviously the weather can surprise us in unexpected ways, but with the current pattern in place, we are likely stuck with the drought for some time. Our best hope to lessen the impact of the drought is a tropical system. October is already not going to be that perfect month with the warmer temps, so might as well have it be a rainy October too. So I hope we can get one or two weak systems that bring some solid rain (but without flooding).
Drought And Spring Outlook (Updated)
03/05/2009 19:53
Very minor dent made in the drought with the heavy rain/SNOW last week. The outlook (bottom below) calls for some relief for the west side of the state (of Georgia). But I don't think we see much improvement in the drought situation any time soon. At least things are not as bad here as they are in Texas. Wow.
March, April and May look to be drier than normal as we are still stuck in this La Nina pattern from hell. Even worse, the rain we do get may come with more severe weather than "normal" the second half/end of March well into April. Think last year, but shifted out a couple of weeks (remember the Atlanta Tornado?).
I also think we will see some more cold weather too (maybe even another shot at frozen fun?!). A late season freeze in April (the kind that does serious damage to budding trees) would not surprise me either. Don't be fooled into thinking spring is finally here this weekend as temps push 80! Winter isn't quite ready to die... yet...
Enjoy the near "perfect" weather the next couple of days!
March, April and May look to be drier than normal as we are still stuck in this La Nina pattern from hell. Even worse, the rain we do get may come with more severe weather than "normal" the second half/end of March well into April. Think last year, but shifted out a couple of weeks (remember the Atlanta Tornado?).
I also think we will see some more cold weather too (maybe even another shot at frozen fun?!). A late season freeze in April (the kind that does serious damage to budding trees) would not surprise me either. Don't be fooled into thinking spring is finally here this weekend as temps push 80! Winter isn't quite ready to die... yet...
Enjoy the near "perfect" weather the next couple of days!
Spring Outlook
02/22/2009 11:03
No doubt about it, this winter has just sucked. So what is in store for this spring?
Well... We are STILL in the clutches of the evil La Nina. So it will be mostly dry with near normal temps.
Here is a look from CPC for March, April, and May:
This is NOT good news. The drought is quickly returning to hard hit areas that have suffered the last few years. A dry spring will almost certainly bring a miserable summer. Without sufficient moisture in the soil, we will enter a nasty feedback system where hot and dry will feed on itself. Lack of soil moisture will cause more of the sun’s energy to go into heating the surface with less going to evaporation of water. This will also hinder the development of the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
I hate it when it gets above 70. So I am NOT a happy camper thinking about this summer.
It is clear that La Nina has got to go. She has WAY overstayed her welcome. Actually she was never welcome begin with. Someone please show that b!tch out the door already!!
Well... We are STILL in the clutches of the evil La Nina. So it will be mostly dry with near normal temps.
Here is a look from CPC for March, April, and May:
This is NOT good news. The drought is quickly returning to hard hit areas that have suffered the last few years. A dry spring will almost certainly bring a miserable summer. Without sufficient moisture in the soil, we will enter a nasty feedback system where hot and dry will feed on itself. Lack of soil moisture will cause more of the sun’s energy to go into heating the surface with less going to evaporation of water. This will also hinder the development of the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
I hate it when it gets above 70. So I am NOT a happy camper thinking about this summer.
It is clear that La Nina has got to go. She has WAY overstayed her welcome. Actually she was never welcome begin with. Someone please show that b!tch out the door already!!
Drought Continues - Same Old Tune...
02/13/2009 09:42
Drought conditions worsened even further over the last week...
Meanwhile, things continue to look grim for those wanting Winter Weather. Models continue marching storms northward each run. No real arctic air for the SE. Same old %^$&#! story...
The only “good news” is that we might be entering a brief “wet” period. Though “wet” is relative.
I’m ready to kick both the Drought and Winter 2009 to where the sun don’t shine! I’m over both of them!
Meanwhile, things continue to look grim for those wanting Winter Weather. Models continue marching storms northward each run. No real arctic air for the SE. Same old %^$&#! story...
The only “good news” is that we might be entering a brief “wet” period. Though “wet” is relative.
I’m ready to kick both the Drought and Winter 2009 to where the sun don’t shine! I’m over both of them!
Drought Continues
02/07/2009 10:26
Looks like drought conditions worsened a little bit over the last week.
Three month outlooks continue to show below normal precip... and with the continued La Nina conditions, we should expect the drought to continue through the spring.
Let’s pray this general pattern changes soon! La Nina needs to take a hike!
Three month outlooks continue to show below normal precip... and with the continued La Nina conditions, we should expect the drought to continue through the spring.
Let’s pray this general pattern changes soon! La Nina needs to take a hike!
Outlook for February
02/02/2009 12:36
Will February be another wasted month for winter weather? It certainly isn’t starting off with much promise.
This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.
Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.
Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.
So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.
I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.
UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:
YUCK!!!
This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.
Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.
Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.
So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.
I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.
UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:
YUCK!!!