Severe Wx Thursday?

SPC has put out a "slight risk" for this Thursday:





Click here for more severe weather information.

My Apologies...

Sorry about the lack of posts... Especially given the fact that there was a threat of severe weather.

I had a family emergency that I needed to deal with. Everything is fine now, and I look forward to catching back up on everything in the world of weather.

- Paul

Rain Today - Severe Tomorrow

Very rainy morning here in Atlanta... Expect the rain to continue for a couple more hours before tapering off this afternoon. However, more rain is on the way late tonight into tomorrow.

Here is the latest QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from HPC:



Still some uncertainty about the severe potential for tomorrow. As of now, it looks like the area will be under the gun.

SPC has us under a "slight" risk for severe tomorow:



However... SPC has the probabilistic outlook at 45%:



That's fairly high, but uncertainty is keeping SPC from updating the risk beyond "slight".

Update On Rain And Severe Wx...

So... Where is all that rain that the QPF maps were showing? Well... part of it just hasn't gotten here yet... and convection along the gulf cut off some of the moisture.

Here is the latest QPF map from HPC:



You can see that the amounts up our way have decreased a little. However, 10+ inches down in the Panhandle!? Wow...

Still watching the potential for severe weather in the area for Saturday. More on that tomorrow...

Severe Weather?

Looks like it was a rough night over to our west, and there is a tornado watch this morning to the south. But for the Atlanta area, don't expect any severe weather until tomorrow/Saturday...

Here are SPC's outlooks for the next couple of days:







We also still have a LOT of rain coming over the next couple of days. Here is the QPF outlook from HPC:



The rain is certainly good news for the drought situation. Stay safe!

The Deluge Cometh

What drought?


Heavy Rain And Maybe Severe

If you have anything you need to do outside, better get it done tomorrow afternoon. Rain looks to be the story for the remainder of the week.

HPC's QPF outlook for the next 5 days shows us getting 4+ inches of rain. Excellent news as we are still very much in a drought.



With this much needed rain also comes the possibility of severe weather. SPC has our area highlighted for this coming weekend.



Meanwhile, crazy weather on the plains... Severe weather giving way to a blizzard... Spring has definitely arrived! Fun times ahead!

Mount Redoubt Erupts

Mount Redoubt has finally erupted!



Mount Redoubt Volcano, 106 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, erupted explosively March 22, 2009, at approximately 10:38 PM AKDT, sending a cloud of volcanic ash to an estimated 50,000 feet above sea level. Scientists from the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) are monitoring the volcano closely as the eruption continues.

Alaska Volcano Observatory:
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2168
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/

Anchorage Daily News:
http://www.adn.com/volcano/story/732796.html

The Calm Is Coming To An End

Hope you enjoyed the beautiful weekend!

The awesome weather we have been enjoying will be coming to a close... the end of this week looks to be interesting... More details soon...

Average Last Freeze Dates

So... are we done with cold weather until the Fall? Maybe... Maybe not... I still feel we will have at least one more freeze, but I don't base that on anything other than "gut"...

Meanwhile, here is some info from the NW on what is typically the last freeze date.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/lastfrz.shtml

The map below shows the average dates when various areas of the state see the last freeze of Spring. This is determined "climatologically", or by looking back through history.

Another way to look at the map: your chance of experiencing the last freeze of the season is less than 50 percent after the dates shown for your location.



Latest Spring Freezes on Record...
Atlanta : April 25 (1910)
Athens : April 21 (1953)
Columbus : April 21 (1953)
Macon : April 20 (1983)

Spring

Today is the first day of Astronomical Spring. The weather will certainly feel like spring the next few days too!

Unfortunately, the nice weather will not help the drought situation. We are really going to be in trouble if we don't get some good rain in here soon. Looks like the next shot at rain will be late next week.

Enjoy the weekend!

The Calm Before The Something

The rain is gone, and it looks to be a beautiful week (except maybe a passing shower Thursday). Even my mostly wintertime heart is looking forward to a little nice weather. Especially Saturday which, as of now, looks to be about pefect! Sunny and 64!

However, what looms over the horizon? I have a feeling that "something" is coming. Models hint that it is going to get cold again, but what will usher it in? Will it be severe or wintery? Both? And just how cold will it get?

My gut says a severe event is coming. Alright, any fool this time of year has good odds of being right with that statement. But enjoy this quiet period as "something" looms...

1 Year Ago...

It was just a year ago today that an EF-2 tornado blew through downtown Atlanta, and I remember this storm vividly.

I was sitting on my couch catching up on episodes of LOST (which I've unfortunately gotten sucked into)... saw a flash of lightening in the distance and immediately had a strange feeling. I didn't recall that we were supposed to have severe weather until the next day... but that feeling in my gut stayed with me.

I started following the storm on radar as the lightening became really intense. I saw the velocity couplet and knew things were about to get interesting. Being the sensible person I am, I went outside!

The air was disconcertingly still. Just lots of lightening and thunder... no rain... no wind... nothing. Suddenly very large hail started to fall. The air continued to feel unnaturally still. Not good.

Then came the roar above. It sounded like it was really windy high above the trees, but nothing at ground level yet. It got louder and the tops of the trees started to really move. Intense and very scary... I knew what was happening. I just felt it in my gut. Curiosity and awe kept me frozen in place.

I live in a 1940's bungalow with no basement (no foundation built on piles). My center hallway closet was probably the best place to be, but I didn't go there. I just stood with my kitchen door open, watching everything going on outside. I just couldn't move.

The tornado touched down just two miles south of my location.

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I keep a running history of notable weather events for Atlanta and update/add information often.

You can find the entry (including more pictures and videos) for the 2008 Atlanta Tornado here:
http://atlwx.com/wxhistory/files/20080314-atlanta_tornado.html

16 Years Ago...

Atlanta was a different place 16 years ago today. I remember standing on the North Ave. bridge looking out at the barren, white ribbon beneath me that was the "downtown connector". Hearing the wind howling through the Bank of America tower. I was part of a group of hungry Georgia Tech undergrads that were devastated to find the Varsity closed. As we walked back toward campus into the howling north-west winds and heavy SNOW that felt like pieces of sand ripping my face off, I thought I was going to die.

I went to bed the previous night, hearing and believing that it was going to SNOW. It was the weekend before finals and I had crashed on a friend's couch in a dorm at Tech. I woke up sometime before dawn to go to the bathroom. I recall seeing a couple of flashes of lightning in the window and thinking to myself "guess it isn't SNOWING yet"...

As I walked to the bathroom down the hall, I passed the glass, front doors of the dorm. I just about fainted. There was SNOW on the ground that was suddenly illuminated by another flash of lightning! The bathroom would wait. I ran down the hall and grabbed my coat, woke a few folks up and dashed outside.

I was immediately treated to another flash of lightning and then the craziest sound I have ever heard. The muffled rumble of thunder across a completely white landscape. I think I literally cried. This was unlike any weather I had ever experienced before.

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The "Blizzard of '93" is also known as the "March Superstorm" and the "Storm of the Century". Atlanta officially received only 4 inches of SNOW. It was more like 6-7 inches in midtown Atlanta and increased dramatically as you went north.





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Other Personal Accounts, Links & Blogs:

Remembering the "Blizzard of 1993" (NWS - Birmingham Office):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/1993/Blizzard_of_1993/index.php

National Climatic Data Center - Technical Report:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9301/tr9301.pdf

"A Storm For the Ages" by Daniel L (NWS):
http://nsstc.uah.edu/cwb/?p=1332

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James Spann's Coverage (Alabama)











Weather Channel Coverage



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I keep a running history of notable weather events for Atlanta and update/add information often.

You can find the entry for the Blizzard of '93 here:
http://atlwx.com/wxhistory/files/19930313-blizzard_93.html

Winter 2009 Is Done

Another warm day... bleh... But rain will be on the increase... Yea!!!

Oh, by the way, winter 2009* is for the most part - dead... as if you didn't already know that. Recent hints at winter weather turned out to be completely bogus. Are we surprised?! If I could pour any liquid of my choosing on the computers that run all these stupid models, I would. I hate them. Pain and suffering are all they have caused this year. Bad models! Bad!

While I'm proclaiming winter 2009 dead, I won't say that it won't get cold again. "Dead" to me means that there is no longer any real hope at all of seeing my favourite weather in the world - SNOW. I think we will indeed have at least another day or two where temps go below freezing. The last freeze is historically (average) around March 30th. I even think we will see one late season freeze sometime in April.

Thank God for our SNOW a week and a half ago. I was really worried that winter 2009 was going to go down without any wintery fun.

R.I.P. - Winter 2009... Bring on Winter 2010!!!

* Of course it is really winter 2008/2009, but you know what I mean... oh yeah, and this is only for the Atlanta area. For example, Lake Superior froze over, so this past winter wasn't a dud for everyone.

Warm

Very warm today with highs near 80 in most places.

***YUCK***

I can enjoy nice days in the late summer into fall, but not in the springtime. I hate watching the thermometer creep up every day with the knowledge that summer is but around the corner. September cannot get here soon enough!

The warmth will abate some in the coming days as more clouds and moisture overrun the area. This weekend doesn't look to be as nice as this past weekend. And certainly no where near as nice as the previous weekend (remember the SNOW?)! Right now, it looks like we will have cooler and rain on the increase for the rest of the week into the weekend.

Daylight Savings Time Is Stupid

Don't forget to set your clocks ahead. The ridiculous and antiquated daylight savings time begins tonite.

Why do we still do this? Why can't people just get up earlier if they want more daylight? How many more car accidents will happen Monday because of this stupid holdout from farming and trains?

Whatever. I'm more of "Z" time kinda guy anyhow...

Added A New Section To Site

I added a new section to the site: Atlanta Weather History

This section will focus on significant weather events in Atlanta. It is done in a "blog" style. You should be able to click the categories/tags on the right for specific years, months, or type of event. I plan to add and update content on a regular basis.

If you have any suggestions or ideas for events, please scroll to the bottom of this page and click "Contact Me" to send an email.

Drought And Spring Outlook (Updated)

Very minor dent made in the drought with the heavy rain/SNOW last week. The outlook (bottom below) calls for some relief for the west side of the state (of Georgia). But I don't think we see much improvement in the drought situation any time soon. At least things are not as bad here as they are in Texas. Wow.

March, April and May look to be drier than normal as we are still stuck in this La Nina pattern from hell. Even worse, the rain we do get may come with more severe weather than "normal" the second half/end of March well into April. Think last year, but shifted out a couple of weeks (remember the Atlanta Tornado?).

I also think we will see some more cold weather too (maybe even another shot at frozen fun?!). A late season freeze in April (the kind that does serious damage to budding trees) would not surprise me either. Don't be fooled into thinking spring is finally here this weekend as temps push 80! Winter isn't quite ready to die... yet...

Enjoy the near "perfect" weather the next couple of days!





Beautiful Weekend Ahead

After I got my wish for SNOW and cold weather, I suppose it is only fair for those folks who like warm and boring to get their day in the sun. The rest of the week warms up each day into a dry and sunny weekend with temps in the mid 70's. Definitely beautiful weather that even I can get into. Now if I could just get past the fact that this means summer is on the way... YUCK!!!

Enjoy the nice weather!

Georgia SNOWFALL Map

The NWS office out of Peachtree City (FFC) has put out a SNOWFALL map for the March 1st storm.



As you can see, the band is very narrow. Typical of an upper level driven system. Those of you who actually got SNOW should be very grateful! At the height of the storm, I had roughly 2 inches on the ground. If it had been below freezing and/or overnight, I'm sure it would have been somewhere closer to 6-8 inches. So those even luckier folks in the greens and oranges could have gotten nearly a foot had the surface conditions been a few degrees colder.

I hope we can see one more SNOWFALL map this year before the misery of Spring and Summer arrives. The odds are not in our favour, but they aren't zero. Keep praying and hoping!

The Memories

Photos of yesterday's SNOW event (click to view more):




An interesting time-lapse video of yesterday's SNOW event:


Sadly, It Is Over...

SNOW is quickly coming to an end from west to east. Rain has been mixing back in with the SNOW as the temp has climbed back up from 33 to 35 as we no longer have the dynamic cooling in place. Expect most of the SNOW to melt before temps go back down. The wind is also picking up and will help dry the roads before nightfall. Unfortunately, work and school are on for tomorrow. GRRRRRR... I'm sure there will be some slick spots though, so please be careful.

I hate seeing melting SNOW. It really is just a sad moment for me. But I am grateful for the SNOW while it lasted... and THUNDERSNOW!!! Just wow! I wouldn't call today epic, but it certainly was memorable.

Got some great pictures today. I will posted them either later tonite or sometime tomorrow.

THUNDERSNOW

I've heard a few claps of thunder today. I haven't seen/heard THUNDERSNOW since the Blizzard of '93. AWESOME!!!

A Little Late: Winter Storm Warning

FFC is a little late issuing this...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED FROM RAIN
TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERED IN FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE ALREADY ON THE GROUND IN THE WARNED AREAS.

GAZ022>025-027-032>039-042>060-066>071-078-079-089-020500-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.090301T1837Z-090302T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-HARRIS-
TALBOT-MUSCOGEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...COLUMBUS
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO GAINESVILLE AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...WITH A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING AND WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

FINALLY!

IT IS FINALLY SNOWING IN ATLANTA!!! WOO HOO!!!

Sleet

Just had a wild burst of sleet here. Temp is finally coming down at a steady rate now. Hopefully this is the beginning of an epic day!!!

Waiting

Waiting... Hoping... Praying...