It was a cold and icy day in Atlanta on January 28, 1986. I was just a kid and remember being out of school for the winter weather. However, many other kids across the country sat in their class rooms waiting to see the launch of the first civilian/teacher into Earth orbit. You know the rest of the story.



We best honor them by continuing to invest both money and talent into continued space exploration. As you read this on your i-Device, don’t forget to look up every now and then.

Tags: space, remember

Saturday - Sunny with a high 62-64.

THAT is just about what I call perfect. This winter weather fan is very much looking forward to tomorrow!

Tags: spring

A cold and rainy day for us here in Atlanta with highs in the low to mid 40’s. More rain over night with lows dropping to around 34-35. Tomorrow could see the rain ending as snow for much of the area, however temperatures will remain above freezing, so not expecting any travel problems.

Nice weekend ahead! Sunny and highs nearing 60 for Sunday maybe! Woo hoo!!!

Tags: winterwx, rain, snow

The next storm system sure has a lot of weather folks on edge. All sorts of different solutions being thrown around, but I’m going to go ahead and present my gut feeling on this. I think the most likely scenario is that Atlanta will see a mostly cold rain event Tuesday. Overnight Tuesday, could see some snow mix in, especially northern suburbs of Atlanta with no accumulations expected.

Sorry snow fans, but it looks like we don’t have a good shot with this storm. Of course there is still plenty of time for things to change!

Tags: winterwx, rain, snow

Another winter storm is in the cards for the early work week. Too early to nail down the details, but it could bring wintery precip to Atlanta. Right now it looks like Atlanta is in its favourite place on I-20. Could be snow, rain, or both. Stay tuned!

Tags: winterwx, snow, sleet

Brief update... There is a chance that the area could see rain changing to a wintery mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Thursday night into Friday morning... However, there is not much in the way of accumulation expected. Maybe a dusting for far north metro, but otherwise, don’t expect a snow day on Friday.

Tags: winterwx, radar, snow, ice, sleet

The great thaw continues Sunday with sun at times and highs near 50. Rain moves in Monday morning and will continue through Tuesday evening. What snow and ice doesn’t melt today will certainly be taken care of by the rain. Hothlanta is quickly returning to just plain old Atlanta.

But will it stay that way? Hmmmm....

Despite many folks (myself include) thinking the later half of January could see a warm up, it seems that winter isn’t ready to throw us a break. Arctic returns for late week with a CHANCE for... you guessed it! Snow...

Here is the end of the forecast period for Atlanta from the NWS:

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A slight chance of flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.

* * *

And here is the longterm forecast discussion from Peachtree City (Atlanta) NWS. There is a lot of jargon that I’ve tried to define below for those that ask.

/ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011/

...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE APPEARS DESTINED FOR THE SE U.S. DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED-THU IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SE
FROM SC CANADA TOWARD THE SE U.S. IN THE DEEPENING NW FLOW THU-FRI.
SUFFICIENT FORCING APPEARS EVIDENT WITH THE DRIVING UPPER SHORT WAVE
THU-THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QPF OF 1.0-1.5
INCH APPEARS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
REMOVED BY THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. PREFER LIGHTER QPF
DEPICTED BY THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. STRONG CAA AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING PROVIDE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR -SHSN IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING FOR THESE PERIODS. AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SE STATES
EARLY SAT...THEN MODIFY AND DRIFT EAST BY SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH
A REMNANT ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...ANY SUCH SYSTEMS COULD
BRING MORE WINTER WX TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS JUST COME IN WITH A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM THE 12Z RUN...SHOWING A
WARMER...BUT STILL WITH SOME WINTER WX POTENTIAL DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND NOT
MENTION ANY WINTER WX OTHER THAN THE -SHSN N GA THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

MEX MOS COMES IN COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
LATE WEEK AIR MASS EMANATES FROM A VERY COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SIBERIA. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH
-40C ACROSS SE CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH -16C PUSHING INTO N GA
FRI. ANALOGOUS TO SIMILAR EVENTS...E.G...12 DEC 2010...THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HIGHS 25 TO 30 N GA AND 35 TO 40 CENTRAL GA
FRI...RECOVERING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST MEMBERS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PERIODS.

FINALLY...16 DAY RUN OF GFS SHOWS VERY PERSISTENT DEEP POLAR VORTEX
AND DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTER PCPN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR SPILL WELL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.


WX = Weather, but you should know that by now!
SHRA = Showers of Rain / Rain Showers
SHSN = Showers of Snow / Snow Showers
PCPN = Precipitation
GFS = Global Forecast System (Main US based global weather forecast model)
ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (aka European Weather Model/“The Euro”)
QPF = Quantitative Precipitation Forecast - How much liquid (or frozen precip if melted down)
CAA = Cold Air Advection - (Advection: the transfer of heat or matter by the flow of a fluid, esp. horizontally in the atmosphere or the sea.)
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING - air is pushed up by mountains
SHORT WAVES - Think of it like energy impulses that could cause precip
SOUTHERN STREAM - Upper level winds that push those SHORT WAVES along. “Southern branch of jet stream”
12Z - Model run for 12:00pm UTC (London Time). 00Z would be midnight UTC. 18Z would be 6pm UTC and so on...
MOS - Model Output Statistics
MEX MOS - Basically the extended forecast MOS for the GFS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE - it’s jargon, but in the context above, it helps to replace it with “model solution sets”

Those definitions are as quick as I can make them, and some are oversimplified. If you REALLY want to know/understand, then check this site out:

WEATHER PREDICTION EDUCATION

I’ll leave POLAR VORTEX, TROUGH, 850MB TEMPS, and whatever else for you to look up there. Hope this helps!

Tags: hothlanta, rain, winterwx, cold, snow

Right now it is a balmy 22 in Midtown Atlanta. What ice is on the roads is still frozen solid. However, today will really begin the thaw for “Hothlanta” with temps reaching the upper 30’s to near 40 under sunny skies. However, there will still be some refreezing tonight with in the low to mid 20’s. Saturday and Sunday continue the thaw with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Again some refreezing possible Saturday night, but it won’t likely be that much on the roads by then. Still enough of a chance that you should remain cautious through the weekend and especially overnight and until mid morning. Still looks like much needed rain (still in drought, remember?) moves in for Monday. Nothing frozen expected save for far north that may begin as a brief period of freezing rain and sleet before changing to all rain.

This morning, my brother sent me this. Think it about sums it up for most Atlanta folks...

Tags: winterwx, ice, hothlanta, thaw

Most of the Atlanta metro saw highs today above freezing with lots of sunshine. This helped to melt off more snow/ice from the roads, but it wasn’t enough to keep many metro school systems from closing. Overnight many areas will flirt with the coldest temps so far this season with clear skies, little to no wind, and the snow/ice still very much in place. The expected lows tonight are somewhere around 15 for the northern burbs to around 19 on the south side. With today’s melting and roads starting to look “clear” of ice/snow, the dangers of black ice are at its highest for this event. Don’t be fooled in the morning. While many roads have improved and now have long dry and ice free stretches, it only takes a little spot that hasn’t seen direct sun or where water has pooled to cause an accident.

The good news is that tomorrow will see highs near 40 with lots of sun. This should put another large dent in melting the ice/snow from the roads, but it isn’t yet the “all clear”. Lows tomorrow night will be in the lower 20’s, so there will again be areas that will refreeze. Saturday will be sunny with highs in the upper 40’s and overnight lows again below freezing. Sunday will again see sun and highs in the upper 40’s, but clouds will increase late in the day with showers moving in for Monday. Lows Sunday night of around 31-34, but not expecting any frozen issues with warmer air quickly moving in with the precip. I suppose there could be an onset of freezing rain and/or sleet, but it would be very brief. Highs are expected to be in the low 50’s for Monday.

Meanwhile, file this away somewhere... Not a good idea to tackle snow on your roof by starting at the bottom (and/or not knowing what you are doing).

Tags: winterwx, cold, ice

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Neighborhood streets STILL impassible. Not much melting going on today with temps in the upper 20’s with only a little sun every once in a while. Scattered snow flurries have continued pretty much since the mean of the storm ended and will continue into the evening/overnight. Betting school is called off and tomorrow will be another work from home day.

So when will Hothlanta end? Friday afternoon should pretty much do it as temps will reach the 40’s.

I so want one of these shirts:

Tags: winterwx, snow, ice, hothlanta

Here is a video I took while getting gas for my generator that I, thankfully, didn’t need...

Tags: winterwx, snow

It was announced today that the iPhone his finally been freed from the horrible clutches of AT&Lame!!! Hurray!!!

It’s a shame this didn’t happen two years ago (or even at launch). Consumers should always have the choice of subsidized and locked or full price and unlocked! Carriers also need to accept the fact that most all of their customers want them to shut up and become excellent at being “big dumb pipes”.

Of course some consumers are stupid in that they still seem to accept the SMS pricing scam. There are alternatives! Turn off your SMS completely (you’ll likely have to call) and use free options.

Now, back to the weather... It just popped above freezing. Watch out for falling ice/snow from roofs and trees. Parts of the road may soon appear wet, but will likely refreeze tonight. Be careful and aware!

Tags: iphone

Light freezing drizzle/fog continues this morning for the Atlanta area. Most of that should end early afternoon.

So how long are we stuck with the messy roads? Some melting should occur this afternoon with highs struggling a degree or two above freezing, but most will refreeze as temps go into the mid-teens this evening. The same will be the story for tomorrow too. “Black ice” is a very real danger over the next couple of days. The best thing to do for now is not to travel at all. Only venture out if you have a pressing need.

Don’t forget that walking on it isn’t much easier either. I’ve already taken at least one spill! Be careful friends!

Tags: winterwx, ice, sleet, snow

Ok... I haven’t seen this sort of thing since 1993. Heavy snow, blowing wind, pelting in the face. Snow EVERYWHERE. This is an unbelievable event. Definitely in the history books this on goes. I’m completely wowed... and it isn’t even done yet!!!!

Tags: winterwx, snow, sleet

The Weather Service in Atlanta (FFC) has adjusted the forecast slightly... more toward what I was saying yesterday actually... Less Snow for Atlanta and more Ice... YUCK!



1/4” of ice is when trees really start dropping branches and power outages become more common. Remember that if your power goes out, it might not be back on for a day or more. You have until around midnight tonight to still make preparations. Go NOW if you haven’t already!

Tags: winterwx, sleet, ice, snow

*** Winter Storm Warning from 7pm tonight until 7pm Monday ***



I think that map is pretty dead on for what we can expect (as of now).

Meanwhile, check this facebook group out. I’ve joined their team of forecasters! Excellent group of folks and great forecasts.

Foot's Forecast: Southeast‎

Tags: winterwx, snow, sleet, ice

I’m sure everyone is gathering their provisions today as advised! I still believe it is a wise move.

Here are my latest thoughts on our winter storm...

Latest model runs are still showing Atlanta getting a fairly decent amount of precip. Thinking it begins as light snow tomorrow evening. Overnight, the snow will get a little heavier with accumulations around the Atlanta area from 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6”+) before going over to a brief period of sleet. Sleet might add a little additional accumulations, but it will then quickly change to freezing rain sometime Monday morning. The big question is when this will happen. My current thinking is that it will happen soon enough for the Atlanta area (particularly southern portions) to see some fairly significant icing. Enough ice to cause limbs to fall and power outages that, for some, could last more than just 24 hours. This is why I think that stocking up on some provisions that don’t require cooking is a wise thing to do at this point.

There are still many uncertainties with this storm. I’m of the opinion that no one is going to be really certain until it is actually happening. I think most would agree that Atlanta will see frozen precip, and that at some point we’ll see all three: snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Duration of each and how much are the biggest question marks, and my thoughts above are really just an educated guess. This all changes not only with the track of the low, but also thunderstorms that could form along the coast and in the Gulf. This convection could very well limit the precip farther north. There are many other complications that make figuring out specifics right now very difficult.

I’ll post more thoughts later this evening. If you haven’t already, go get a few things to last you through a couple of days without power.

Tags: winterwx, snow, ice, sleet

Get ready Atlanta! Major winter storm is coming!

Too difficult to nail down just how much snow or ice right now. The one thing that is nearly certain though is that there will be a storm and it will have frozen precip. North of the city can expect pretty much all snow. The Atlanta metro will probably get mostly snow at first and then a change over to sleet and freezing rain. It’s fairly safe to say that you can expect a “snow day” Monday as travel will be nearly impossible for most of north GA (including Atlanta metro). Should ice accumulations begin to exceed a quarter inch, then you can expect tree limbs falling and power outages. This is a storm to be taken SERIOUSLY. Make sure you have food that doesn’t require cooking (sandwich meats, peanut butter, beer). If outages are widespread, some could be without power until mid-week. HINT: You are wise to hit the grocery store asap.

Of course the storm track can shift and dramatically change things. Atlanta could very well see almost all snow while the icy conditions shift further south (this is what I’m hoping for).

Here is HPC/NWS probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow:



and here are the probabilities of ice accumulation of at least one quarter inch:



I’ll post an expected accumulation map tomorrow.

Tags: winterwx, ice, snow, sleet

Here is a brief update on the possible winter storm for Sunday/Monday... The models have trended a little warmer and have pushed the bulk of the snow further north. They also continue to show a very “close call” for a fairly significant ice issue for north GA. This could continue to be an unknown all the way up until the event itself unless there is a dramatic change in the current trends.

Look for the NWS and local media to continue with a mention of snow/rain for now. Some may mention ice/sleet... but absolutely no one is certain at this time.

Personally, I’d say prepare a little early just in case. However, I don’t think there is a need to go overboard just yet... unless of course you are an Auburn fan. Football is serious business in the south as everyone knows, and I’d imagine there have been more than a few generators sold in the last 24 hours to fans unnerved by even the slightest possibility of not having power Monday night. Plan accordingly and check in with weather sources often as we go into the weekend.

Tags: winterwx, ice, snow

The potential for a major winter storm for the SE is slowly spreading throughout the social nets and local media. The threat begins Sunday and the duration could possibly extend beyond what we typically see. Everything from a major snowfall to a crippling ice storm to absolutely nothing are our multiple choices for this question. Plain old rain could also be an answer, but it is the first one I’m crossing out.

Look for the NWS and local media to be conservative as usual (and for good reason). However, if you’ve been putting off that generator purchase, now is as good a time as any! Especially you Auburn fans...

Tags: winterwx, snow, ice

The cold will continue to be the story into the new year. Many (myself included) thought we might see a break from the cold of December, but it looks as though we will continue to see below normal temperatures through the middle of the month.



We will have lots of cold, but not too much in the way of moisture. No major snow/ice threats on the horizon. However, we really could use some rain. It’s hard to think about while it is so cold, but much of the south-eastern US is currently in a moderate to severe drought.





We certainly do NOT want to see the map looking like that come summertime!

Tags: cold, drought